are now online! Discuss, debate or converse with other users NOW!Argument from Improbability
From FreeThoughtPedia
Back: Common Theist Arguments
Contents |
Summary
The Argument from improbability can seem very convincing at first. It involves suggesting that the likelihood of complex things being created by chance is so infinitesimally small, there must be some supernatural, Intelligent Design at work.
The human body is such a "perfect machine" it could not have naturally evolved. A particular creature or plant has such an unusual, perfectly-designed, unique system/set of skills/traits/etc. that there's no way this could have just happened. Theists have even been known to invoke Occam's Razor to claim that the most plausible explanation for uniquely special creatures is Intelligent Design.
Like many theological arguments, the Argument from improbability only works if one is intellectually dishonest or ignorant of the facts. When relaying this claim, theists always leave out a critical part of the process that nullifies the validity of the argument from improbability. Ironically, scientists agree, the likelihood of the human body being created "by chance" is ridiculously improbable, but that's not how evolution works. Creatures do not evolve "by chance" in some random nature as theists imply in this argument. Their environment forces them to adapt in specific ways or face extinction. This is called Natural selection. This is such an obvious, critical component of existence, which is observable by everyone, at almost any time, you have to wonder whether or not a theist using this argument is really that ignorant, or being intentionally misleading.
Examples
| The human body is a most wondrous instrument. Isn't it amazing how we have so many processes going on that work so beautifully together? We have a built-in air conditioning system whereby we sweat to cool off, and an elaborate network of arteries and blood vessles; our brain is protected in a special "shell" and all our organs are tweaked to perfection to create a perfect machine. Atheists say we ended up this way evolving from monkey and lower life forms. Let me ask you something.. Can you imagine a hurricane blowing through a warehouse of parts and assembling a complete, working Boeing 747 airplane? This is what we're talking about in terms of the likelihood that the human body, an amazing machine, was created by chance. I don't think so. GODIDIT! |
|---|
This is a spin on a lower level of the argument known as Hoyle's Fallacy:
| The probability that a protein molecule could achieve a functional sequence of amino acids by chance alone -- Hoyle calculates this as being of approximately the same order of magnitude as the probability that a whirlwind would pass through an aircraft hangar full of airplane components and result in the assembly of a functional Jumbo Jet. |
|---|
Ray Comfort demonstrates the Argument From Improbability
A classic example of the argument from improbability: Ray Comfort's infamous, Banana: The Atheist's Nightmare video clip. He also mixes this idea with the Argument From Design. It's so unlikely something so "perfect" was arbitrarily created, it somehow "proves" that it was "intelligently designed."
The ultimate irony of the Way of the Master video is that the banana Ray Comfort is holding was created by man. Naturally occurring bananas don't really look like that.
Problems
- Evolution does not happen "by chance." Complex things are not arbitrarily created without rhyme or reason. This is the fatal flaw of the argument from improbability. It completely collapses the entire argument.
- Natural selection is a documented, fact. It is a process by which creatures evolve through continuing to exist and better adapt to their environment through genetic mutation. This process is observable and provable, in addition to making a lot of sense.
- Nobody disagrees with the claim that it's highly unlikely, for example, that a hurricane could blow through a warehouse and assemble an airplane. Apples and oranges. The development of complex life forms does not happen by chance.
- Time is a major factor in the evolution of complex organisms. Technically it may be possible, that if you have enough monkeys banging on enough typewriters, for a long enough time, they may produce the complete works of Shakespeare. This sounds and is ridiculously improbable, but not impossible. However, imagine if each monkey who couldn't type was killed, and each monkey who demonstrated higher cognitive abilities pursuant to writing, was given a reward. You could in all likelihood dramatically increase the probability that monkeys would develop into creatures more capable of creating literary works. Multiply this over the course of millions of years and billions of generations of creatures and it does not look like a random thing. This is how natural selection works.
- The so-called "perfect machine" is anything but perfect in the first place. In every example cited by theists as perfection or amazing examples of supernatural design, one can find flaws, mistakes, vestiges of obsolete functions or appendages. The human body is not a perfectly designed machine. It has many serious flaws that can only be explained by the process of evolution.
- Humans have a broken gene in their DNA sequence which results in the body not being able to produce Vitamin C, a component necessary for survival
- There are remnants of vestigial organs which don't seem to have a productive function any more: wisdom teeth, tailbone, etc.
- Some organs and components are badly designed: the prostrate
- The human eye and the way it interfaces to the brain is bizarrely designed; what the eye perceives is actually upside down and backwards, and our brain has to flip it back around.
- If people don't get enough sunlight (or, specifically, ultraviolet light), they suffer from Vitamin D deficiency, but if they get too much, they suffer from skin cancer.
- In order to have a large human brain as well as the ability to walk upright, the birth canal is much more complicated than those of other species, and the birth itself is a complicated and painful procedure.
- (need more examples)